Will Israel annex any territory by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will Israel annex any territory by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31, 2026 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 7.5% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $533.2K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31, 2026 (7.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31, 2026 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 8¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $92.1K in volume.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies December 31, 2026 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 7.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 9.7% — yielding an impressive +2.2% EV Gap.