Will Ilhan Omar be deported by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will Ilhan Omar be deported by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, June 30, 2027 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 12.5% chance of winning. December 31, 2026 follows in second place at 2.9%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $99.9K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• June 30, 2027 (12.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, June 30, 2027 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 13¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $4.1K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• December 31, 2026 (2.9%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, December 31, 2026 maintains a 2.9% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 3¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rep. Ilhan Omar is officially deported from the United States by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Omar from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.

A removal order that has not been implemented will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome June 30, 2027 currently trades at 12.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 10.4%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -2.1%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies December 31, 2026 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 2.9% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 5.6% — yielding an impressive +2.7% EV Gap.