Will Humzh's subathon end by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will Humzh's subathon end by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, November 30 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,250% chance of winning. December 31 follows in second place at 5,250%, while January 31 sits in third with 5,250%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• November 30 (5,250%): Currently commanding the highest probability, November 30 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,250¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• December 31 (5,250%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, December 31 maintains a 5,250% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 5,250¢.
• January 31 (5,250%): Sitting in third place with a 5,250% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward January 31, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes February 28 (5,250%), and October 31 (5,000%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like February 28 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Humzh's 2026 subathon, which began on September 25, 2026, on his Twitch channel (https://www.twitch.tv/humzh), ends by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The subathon will be considered to have ended when its countdown timer reaches zero and the subathon concludes, or at the time Humzh officially announces that the subathon is over before the timer runs out. If Humzh's Twitch channel is banned or suspended, the subathon will be considered to have ended only once Humzh officially confirms that it will not resume, or once the ban or suspension is confirmed to be permanent. Pauses of the countdown (e.g., while Humzh sleeps or takes a break), offline periods, and temporary stream interruptions do not count as the subathon ending, regardless of their length, unless Humzh officially announces that the subathon is over. Any later restart, extension after an official end, or new subathon will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Humzh's official Twitch broadcast and official social media accounts (e.g., https://x.com/humzhlol), together with the official subathon tracker (https://humzh.tv/subathon). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.