Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by ___?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by ___?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31, 2026 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 18.5% chance of winning. October 31, 2026 follows in second place at 13.5%, while November 30, 2026 sits in third with 13.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $64.6K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31, 2026 (18.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31, 2026 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 19¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $12.5K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• October 31, 2026 (13.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, October 31, 2026 maintains a 13.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 14¢.
• November 30, 2026 (13.5%): Sitting in third place with a 13.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward November 30, 2026, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~54.5%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes September 30, 2026 (10.5%), July 31, 2026 (5.3%), and August 31, 2026 (4.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like June 30, 2026 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if https://x.com/elonmusk posts the listed term by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in main feed posts, quote posts, and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count.

Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.)

Any plural or possessive forms of the listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count.

Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: H@perl1quid, for "Hyperliquid") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution.

Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: Hyperliquidd or Hyperliqid, for "Hyperliquid"), will not count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of context or intent.

Instances where the listed term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

Posts published from https://x.com/elonmusk during a period in which the account is verifiably compromised or hacked, as confirmed by Elon Musk or X, do not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: https://x.com/elonmusk

Please note, only the https://x.com/elonmusk verified X account counts for this market. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome November 30, 2026 currently trades at 13.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 11.3%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -2.2%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies June 30, 2026 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 2.7% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 50.2% — yielding an impressive +47.5% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include July 31, 2026 (EV Gap: +42.3%) and August 31, 2026 (EV Gap: +11.5%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.