Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31, 2028 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 6,950% chance of winning. December 31, 2027 follows in second place at 4,150%, while December 31, 2026 sits in third with 650%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $74.7K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31, 2028 (6,950%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31, 2028 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 6,950¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $11.5K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• December 31, 2027 (4,150%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, December 31, 2027 maintains a 4,150% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,150¢.
• December 31, 2026 (650%): Sitting in third place with a 650% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward December 31, 2026, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI.

A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered.

A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.