Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, No is dominating the market with an overwhelming 87% chance of winning. Yes follows in second place at 13%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $137.2K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• No (87%): Currently commanding the highest probability, No is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 87¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Yes (13%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Yes maintains a 13% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 13¢.

For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome No currently trades at 87%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 82.5%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -4.5%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Yes as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 13% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 17.5% — yielding an impressive +4.5% EV Gap.