Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? is dominating the market with an overwhelming 72% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $223.8K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? (72%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 72¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $223.8K in volume.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the public valuation of Anthropic surpasses the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For Bitcoin, CoinGecko's data for BTC will be used, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead.

For Anthropic, any public valuation, or private funding round that values the company will be considered. To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by Anthropic or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

The resolution source will CoinGecko and Anthropic's official communications; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? currently trades at 72%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 71.7%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -0.3%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.