Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, No is dominating the market with an overwhelming 8,650% chance of winning. Yes follows in second place at 1,350%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $99.5K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• No (8,650%): Currently commanding the highest probability, No is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 8,650¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Yes (1,350%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Yes maintains a 1,350% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 1,350¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.

A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.

Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.

The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.