Who will be arrested before 2027?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Who will be arrested before 2027?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, John Brennan is dominating the market with an overwhelming 12% chance of winning. James Comey follows in second place at 8.4%, while Mahmoud Khalil sits in third with 8%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $673.9K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• John Brennan (12%): Currently commanding the highest probability, John Brennan is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 12¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $41.7K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• James Comey (8.4%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, James Comey maintains a 8.4% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 8¢.
• Mahmoud Khalil (8%): Sitting in third place with a 8% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Mahmoud Khalil, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~71.6%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes James Clapper (7%), Susan Rice (6%), and Candace Owens (4.6%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Letitia James are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:

* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)

* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant

* Being formally booked or processed following detention

* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station

* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney

* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention

* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed

* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)

* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest

* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Anthony Fauci currently trades at 3.2%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -2.2%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Mahmoud Khalil as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 8% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 17.3% — yielding an impressive +9.3% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero (EV Gap: +8%) and Brandon Johnson (EV Gap: +8%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.