Who will be arrested before 2027?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Who will be arrested before 2027?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, John Brennan is dominating the market with an overwhelming 2,650% chance of winning. Mahmoud Khalil follows in second place at 1,700%, while Susan Rice sits in third with 1,200%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $435.9K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• John Brennan (2,650%): Currently commanding the highest probability, John Brennan is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 2,650¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $25.8K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Mahmoud Khalil (1,700%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Mahmoud Khalil maintains a 1,700% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 1,700¢.
• Susan Rice (1,200%): Sitting in third place with a 1,200% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Susan Rice, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes James Clapper (1,150%), Lee Jun-seok (1,095%), and Brandon Johnson (950%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Anthony Fauci are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:

* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)

* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant

* Being formally booked or processed following detention

* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station

* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney

* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention

* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed

* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)

* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest

* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.