Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Mike Lee is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,000% chance of winning. Catherine Cortez Masto follows in second place at 5,000%, while Mark Warner sits in third with 5,000%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Mike Lee (5,000%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Mike Lee is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,000¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Catherine Cortez Masto (5,000%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Catherine Cortez Masto maintains a 5,000% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 5,000¢.
• Mark Warner (5,000%): Sitting in third place with a 5,000% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Mark Warner, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Jerry Moran (5,000%), Kirsten Gillibrand (5,000%), and Lisa Blunt Rochester (5,000%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Ruben Gallego are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088

The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment.

This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote.

Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally.

This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).