Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Thom Tillis is dominating the market with an overwhelming 10.5% chance of winning. Kirsten Gillibrand follows in second place at 9%, while Mark Warner sits in third with 8.1%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $389.2K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Thom Tillis (10.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Thom Tillis is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 11¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $26.4K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Kirsten Gillibrand (9%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Kirsten Gillibrand maintains a 9% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 9¢.
• Mark Warner (8.1%): Sitting in third place with a 8.1% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Mark Warner, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~72.5%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Andy Kim (7.9%), Alex Padilla (7.6%), and John Fetterman (7.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Jacky Rosen are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088

The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment.

This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote.

Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally.

This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Mark Warner currently trades at 8.1%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 5.8%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -2.2%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Ruben Gallego as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 2.9% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 26.4% — yielding an impressive +23.5% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Jerry Moran (EV Gap: +23%) and Raphael Warnock (EV Gap: +14.7%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.