Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Likud is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,000% chance of winning. Shas follows in second place at 5,000%, while United Torah Judaism sits in third with 5,000%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Likud (5,000%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Likud is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,000¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Shas (5,000%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Shas maintains a 5,000% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 5,000¢.
• United Torah Judaism (5,000%): Sitting in third place with a 5,000% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward United Torah Judaism, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes RZP-Zehut (5,000%), Otzma Yehudit (5,000%), and Together (5,000%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Blue and White are still attracting notable interest.

Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.