Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 62% chance of winning. October follows in second place at 20%, while November sits in third with 19%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $390.3K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 (62%): Currently commanding the highest probability, No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 62¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $264.6K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• October (20%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, October maintains a 20% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 20¢.
• November (19%): Sitting in third place with a 19% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward November, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes September (16.5%), December (16.5%), and July (8%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like August are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.

Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.

If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome October currently trades at 20%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 15.6%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -4.4%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies July as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 8% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 39.9% — yielding an impressive +31.9% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include November (EV Gap: +5.3%) and December (EV Gap: +0.4%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.