Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Syria is dominating the market with an overwhelming 24% chance of winning. Lebanon follows in second place at 15.8%, while Kuwait sits in third with 10.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $83.1K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Syria (24%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Syria is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 24¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $7.1K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Lebanon (15.8%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Lebanon maintains a 15.8% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 16¢.
• Kuwait (10.5%): Sitting in third place with a 10.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Kuwait, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~49.8%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Iraq (9%), Yemen (8.5%), and Bahrain (8%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Qatar are still attracting notable interest.

The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The listed country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs:

- the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or

- the country and the Agreement’s existing parties officially announce, jointly or separately, that the country has become a party, member, or signatory.

Statements of intent, applications, invitations to join, negotiations, parliamentary authorization, approval in principle, or general defense cooperation will not qualify. A separate bilateral or multilateral defense agreement will not qualify unless it is officially identified as accession to the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement.

Once a qualifying accession has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent withdrawal, suspension, reversal, or termination.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Syria currently trades at 24%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 15.8%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -8.2%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Jordan as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 5.8% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 12.3% — yielding an impressive +6.6% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Iran (EV Gap: +6.5%) and Egypt (EV Gap: +4.7%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.