Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Anthropic is dominating the market with an overwhelming 96.5% chance of winning. OpenAI follows in second place at 3.4%, while SpaceXAI sits in third with 0.7%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $73.4K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Anthropic (96.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Anthropic is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 96¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $26.2K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• OpenAI (3.4%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, OpenAI maintains a 3.4% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 3¢.
• SpaceXAI (0.7%): Sitting in third place with a 0.7% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward SpaceXAI, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Meta (0.1%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Meta are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Anthropic currently trades at 96.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 59.9%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -36.5%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies OpenAI as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 3.4% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 9.9% — yielding an impressive +6.5% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Meta (EV Gap: +6.5%) and SpaceXAI (EV Gap: +2.4%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.