Where will it rain on October 31?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Where will it rain on October 31?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Phoenix, AZ is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,450% chance of winning. Los Angeles, CA follows in second place at 5,000%, while Chicago, IL sits in third with 5,000%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $598, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Phoenix, AZ (5,450%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Phoenix, AZ is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,450¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $25 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Los Angeles, CA (5,000%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Los Angeles, CA maintains a 5,000% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 5,000¢.
• Chicago, IL (5,000%): Sitting in third place with a 5,000% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Chicago, IL, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Houston, TX (5,000%), Dallas, TX (5,000%), and Atlanta, GA (5,000%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Miami, FL are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station.

A report of trace ("T") does not qualify.

The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types.

The observation period is the NWS climate day for each station: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning.

Each city is an independent market. Any number of cities may resolve "Yes", including all of them or none of them.

This market will resolve according to the NWS Daily Climate Report as published by 2:00 PM ET on the day following the observation date. If multiple versions of the report are issued, the last version published before that time governs. If no figure has been published by that time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for each city's station.