Where will it rain on November 9?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Where will it rain on November 9?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Los Angeles, CA is dominating the market with an overwhelming 1.3% chance of winning. Washington, DC follows in second place at 1.3%, while Atlanta, GA sits in third with 1.3%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $1.5K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Los Angeles, CA (1.3%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Los Angeles, CA is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 1¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $269 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Washington, DC (1.3%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Washington, DC maintains a 1.3% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 1¢.
• Atlanta, GA (1.3%): Sitting in third place with a 1.3% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Atlanta, GA, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~96.2%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Philadelphia, PA (1.1%), and Phoenix, AZ (0.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Philadelphia, PA are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on November 9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station.

A report of trace ("T") does not qualify.

The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types.

The observation period is the NWS climate day for each station: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning.

Each city is an independent market. Any number of cities may resolve "Yes", including all of them or none of them.

This market will resolve according to the NWS Daily Climate Report as published by 2:00 PM ET on the day following the observation date. If multiple versions of the report are issued, the last version published before that time governs. A governing report that gives the figure as missing ("M" or "MM") is treated as reporting 0.00 inches, and this market will resolve to "No". If no figure has been published by that time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for each city's station.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Los Angeles, CA currently trades at 1.3%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -0.3%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Phoenix, AZ as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 0.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 1% — yielding an impressive +0.5% EV Gap.