What will the next Muse model family be named?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “What will the next Muse model family be named?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Muse Fire is dominating the market with an overwhelming 17.5% chance of winning. Muse Flame follows in second place at 15%, while Muse Watermelon sits in third with 11.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $94.6K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Muse Fire (17.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Muse Fire is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 18¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $21.5K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Muse Flame (15%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Muse Flame maintains a 15% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 15¢.
• Muse Watermelon (11.5%): Sitting in third place with a 11.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Muse Watermelon, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~56.1%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Muse Flare (9.8%), Muse Nova (9.5%), and Muse Blaze (5.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Muse Flare are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the model family name of the next model Meta releases in a new model family, released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

A qualifying release is Meta's first publicly released model of a new model family. New versions, updates, modes, variants, or re-releases of models in existing families will not qualify.

Each listed option's family name is its name excluding "Muse". This market will resolve to the listed option whose family name, together with "Muse", appears in the qualifying model's official name, regardless of word order, capitalization, spacing, punctuation, or hyphenation, and regardless of accompanying modifiers such as version numbers, dates, or mode, size, or variant designations. A family name appearing only as part of a longer word will not count. If the official name contains the family names of multiple listed options, this market will resolve to the option that comes first in alphabetical order, exactly as listed in this market group.

This market will resolve to "Other" if no qualifying release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the qualifying model's official name does not include "Muse", contains no word other than "Muse" and such modifiers, or contains no listed option's family name.

The official name is the name under which the model is presented in Meta's primary launch announcement or, absent one, its model card. API identifiers, URL slugs, interface labels, and codenames will not be considered. Any subsequent renaming, cancellation, or reclassification will not affect resolution.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

This market will resolve according to the first qualifying release. If multiple models are released on the same calendar date (ET), all will be considered; if only one qualifies, this market will resolve according to it. If multiple qualify, this market will resolve to the option that comes first in alphabetical order, exactly as listed in this market group.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Muse Fire currently trades at 17.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 11.4%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -6.1%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Muse Watermelon as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 11.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 21.3% — yielding an impressive +9.8% EV Gap.