What will the median home value in the Denver Metro area be on December 31?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “What will the median home value in the Denver Metro area be on December 31?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, <$458K is dominating the market with an overwhelming 2,550% chance of winning. $458K - $463K follows in second place at 2,550%, while $463K - $468K sits in third with 2,550%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• <$458K (2,550%): Currently commanding the highest probability, <$458K is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 2,550¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• $458K - $463K (2,550%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, $458K - $463K maintains a 2,550% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 2,550¢.
• $463K - $468K (2,550%): Sitting in third place with a 2,550% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward $463K - $468K, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes $468K - $473K (2,550%), $473K - $478K (2,550%), and $478K - $482K (2,550%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like $482K+ are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Denver, Colorado Metro area on December 31, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Denver, Colorado Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2899750). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1800 square feet, which is the median home size in the Denver, Colorado Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/63)