What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Iran Reconstruction Funding is dominating the market with an overwhelming 11.5% chance of winning. 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium follows in second place at 10.5%, while Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) sits in third with 10.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $834.1K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Iran Reconstruction Funding (11.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Iran Reconstruction Funding is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 12¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $229.0K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium (10.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium maintains a 10.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 11¢.
• Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) (10.5%): Sitting in third place with a 10.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year), treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~67.5%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Dilution of Iran's Uranium (9%), ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) (8%), and Enriched Uranium Surrender (4.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Dilution of Iran's Uranium are still attracting notable interest.

Rules

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Enriched Uranium Surrender as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 4.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 29.7% — yielding an impressive +25.2% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Dilution of Iran's Uranium (EV Gap: +23.5%) and Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) (EV Gap: +11.7%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.