What will Anthropic's public ticker be?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “What will Anthropic's public ticker be?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, $ANTH is dominating the market with an overwhelming 35% chance of winning. $ANT follows in second place at 12.2%, while $ANAI sits in third with 7.2%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $94.8K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• $ANTH (35%): Currently commanding the highest probability, $ANTH is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 35¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $31.6K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• $ANT (12.2%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, $ANT maintains a 12.2% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 12¢.
• $ANAI (7.2%): Sitting in third place with a 7.2% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward $ANAI, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~45.6%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes $CLDE (6.2%), $APBC (5.4%), and $CLAU (2.2%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like $CLD are still attracting notable interest.

An official announcement from Anthropic that it will IPO under a specific ticker symbol will be sufficient to resolve this market.

If a ticker used by Anthropic in a qualifying IPO is a variant of a ticker symbol listed in this market group with additional letters to denote a specific class of shares, it will be considered to be that ticker (e.g. if Anthropic uses a ticker symbol of $ANTH.A or $ANTHA, this market will resolve to $ANTH).

If Anthropic announces an IPO with multiple tickers that are not considered the same ticker under the previous rule (i.e. $ANTH.A and $ANTH.B would be considered the same ticker), this market will remain open until Anthropic's first day of public trading and will resolve according to the ticker symbolizing the security class with the greatest market capitalization. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve according to the ticker symbol that comes first in alphabetical order.

If Anthropic IPOs with a non-listed ticker, or does not IPO or officially announce an IPO and ticker symbol by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic and the primary exchange's official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

Note: In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will use the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will use the closing price on the next trading day for which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome $ANT currently trades at 12.2%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 9.2%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -3%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies $CLDE as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 6.2% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 15.2% — yielding an impressive +9.1% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include $AAI (EV Gap: +5.2%) and $ARPC (EV Gap: +3.8%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.