What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, $2.00–$2.25T is dominating the market with an overwhelming 22.2% chance of winning. $2.50T+ follows in second place at 17.6%, while $2.25–$2.50T sits in third with 13%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $79.9K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• $2.00–$2.25T (22.2%): Currently commanding the highest probability, $2.00–$2.25T is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 22¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $18.9K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• $2.50T+ (17.6%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, $2.50T+ maintains a 17.6% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 18¢.
• $2.25–$2.50T (13%): Sitting in third place with a 13% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward $2.25–$2.50T, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~47.3%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes $1.50–$1.75T (7.1%), No IPO by December 31, 2027 (2.7%), and $1.25–$1.50T (1.8%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like <$1.25T are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of Anthropic at its initial public offering (IPO) price. Anthropic refers to Anthropic PBC or the corporate successor or parent holding company whose listing represents Anthropic's business.

The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.

The IPO valuation will be determined in the following order of precedence: (1) the implied fully diluted valuation at the final IPO price, as stated in the final prospectus or in an official Anthropic announcement; (2) if no such figure is stated, the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis as disclosed in the final prospectus, where the fully diluted count includes all outstanding shares of every class and all shares underlying outstanding options, restricted stock units, warrants, and convertible instruments, regardless of vesting or exercise status and without applying the treasury stock method; (3) if the fully diluted share count cannot be determined from the final prospectus, the implied fully diluted IPO valuation as reported by a consensus of credible reporting.

If the determined valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.

If Anthropic's IPO has not priced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". If the IPO prices by the deadline, the market will resolve according to the final prospectus even if it is published after the end date.

If Anthropic becomes publicly traded without a priced initial public offering, including through a direct listing or through a merger, acquisition, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, this market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".

The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome $2.50T+ currently trades at 17.6%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 5.3%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -12.3%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies <$1.25T as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 0.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 9.8% — yielding an impressive +9.3% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include No IPO by December 31, 2027 (EV Gap: +8.2%) and $2.25–$2.50T (EV Gap: +5%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.