What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, No is dominating the market with an overwhelming 100% chance of winning. No follows in second place at 100%, while No sits in third with 99.8%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $6.5M, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- No (100%): Currently commanding the highest probability, No is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 100¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.
🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers
- No (100%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, No maintains a 100% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 100¢.
- No (99.8%): Sitting in third place with a 99.8% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward No, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.
🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)
Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:
- Alternative Options: This includes No (99.7%), No (99.7%), and No (99.6%).
- Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like No are still attracting notable interest.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No | 100.0% | — | 100¢ | 0¢ |
| 2 | No | 100.0% | — | 100¢ | 0¢ |
| 3 | No | 99.8% | — | 100¢ | 0¢ |
| 4 | No | 99.7% | — | 100¢ | 0¢ |
| 5 | No | 99.7% | — | 100¢ | 0¢ |
| 6 | No | 99.6% | — | 100¢ | 0¢ |
| 7 | No | 99.4% | — | 99¢ | 1¢ |
| 8 | No | 99.3% | — | 99¢ | 1¢ |
| 9 | No | 99.0% | — | 99¢ | 1¢ |
| 10 | No | 99.0% | — | 99¢ | 1¢ |
| 11 | No | 98.8% | — | 99¢ | 1¢ |
| 12 | No | 98.6% | — | 99¢ | 1¢ |
| 13 | No | 97.8% | — | 98¢ | 2¢ |
| 14 | No | 97.8% | — | 98¢ | 2¢ |
| 15 | No | 97.0% | — | 97¢ | 3¢ |
| 16 | No | 94.8% | — | 95¢ | 5¢ |
| 17 | No | 93.5% | — | 94¢ | 7¢ |
| 18 | No | 89.0% | — | 89¢ | 11¢ |
| 19 | No | 81.0% | — | 81¢ | 19¢ |
| 20 | No | 74.5% | — | 75¢ | 26¢ |
| 21 | Yes | 58.0% | — | 58¢ | 42¢ |
| 22 | No | 53.9% | — | 54¢ | 46¢ |
| 23 | Yes | 46.1% | — | 46¢ | 54¢ |
| 24 | No | 42.0% | — | 42¢ | 58¢ |
| 25 | Yes | 25.5% | — | 26¢ | 75¢ |
| 26 | Yes | 19.0% | — | 19¢ | 81¢ |
| 27 | Yes | 11.0% | — | 11¢ | 89¢ |
| 28 | Yes | 6.5% | — | 7¢ | 94¢ |
| 29 | Yes | 5.1% | — | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 30 | Yes | 2.9% | — | 3¢ | 97¢ |
| 31 | Yes | 2.3% | — | 2¢ | 98¢ |
| 32 | Yes | 2.2% | — | 2¢ | 98¢ |
| 33 | Yes | 1.5% | — | 1¢ | 99¢ |
| 34 | Yes | 1.3% | — | 1¢ | 99¢ |
| 35 | Yes | 1.1% | — | 1¢ | 99¢ |
| 36 | Yes | 1.0% | — | 1¢ | 99¢ |
| 37 | Yes | 0.8% | — | 1¢ | 99¢ |
| 38 | Yes | 0.7% | — | 1¢ | 99¢ |
| 39 | Yes | 0.4% | — | 0¢ | 100¢ |
| 40 | Yes | 0.4% | — | 0¢ | 100¢ |
| 41 | Yes | 0.3% | — | 0¢ | 100¢ |
| 42 | Yes | 0.3% | — | 0¢ | 100¢ |
| 43 | Yes | 0.1% | — | 0¢ | 100¢ |
| 44 | Yes | 0.1% | — | 0¢ | 100¢ |
Result Rules
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps
While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.
Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.
Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities
Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:
- The Most Overvalued Outcome No currently trades at 74.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 64.9%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -9.6%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
- The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Yes as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 25.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 35.1% — yielding an impressive +9.6% EV Gap.
- Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Yes (EV Gap: +9.3%) and Yes (EV Gap: +7.2%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 100.0% | 99.5% | -0.4% |
| No | 100.0% | 99.9% | -0.1% |
| No | 99.8% | 97.4% | -2.4% |
| No | 99.7% | 99.5% | -0.2% |
| No | 99.7% | 98.5% | -1.1% |
| No | 99.6% | 98.5% | -1.1% |
| No | 99.4% | 98.7% | -0.6% |
| No | 99.3% | 98.4% | -0.9% |
| No | 99.0% | 98.4% | -0.6% |
| No | 99.0% | 97.7% | -1.3% |
| No | 98.8% | 96.4% | -2.3% |
| No | 98.6% | 94.8% | -3.7% |
| No | 97.8% | 93.5% | -4.3% |
| No | 97.8% | 93.5% | -4.2% |
| No | 97.0% | 92.8% | -4.3% |
| No | 94.8% | 91.7% | -3.1% |
| No | 93.5% | 89.6% | -3.9% |
| No | 89.0% | 83.3% | -5.7% |
| No | 81.0% | 71.7% | -9.3% |
| No | 74.5% | 64.9% | -9.6% |
| YesBest EV | 58.0% | 65.2% | +7.2% |
| No | 53.9% | 56.1% | +2.2% |
| YesBest EV | 46.1% | 43.9% | -2.2% |
| No | 42.0% | 34.8% | -7.2% |
| YesBest EV | 25.5% | 35.1% | +9.6% |
| YesBest EV | 19.0% | 28.3% | +9.3% |
| YesBest EV | 11.0% | 16.7% | +5.7% |
| YesBest EV | 6.5% | 1.0% | -5.5% |
| YesBest EV | 5.1% | 8.3% | +3.1% |
| YesBest EV | 2.9% | 7.2% | +4.3% |
| YesBest EV | 2.3% | 1.0% | -1.3% |
| YesBest EV | 2.2% | 6.5% | +4.3% |
| YesBest EV | 1.5% | 5.2% | +3.7% |
| YesBest EV | 1.3% | 3.6% | +2.3% |
| YesBest EV | 1.1% | 2.3% | +1.3% |
| YesBest EV | 1.0% | 1.6% | +0.6% |
| YesBest EV | 0.8% | 1.6% | +0.9% |
| YesBest EV | 0.7% | 1.3% | +0.6% |
| YesBest EV | 0.4% | 1.5% | +1.1% |
| YesBest EV | 0.4% | 1.0% | +0.7% |
| YesBest EV | 0.3% | 0.5% | +0.2% |
| YesBest EV | 0.3% | 2.6% | +2.4% |
| YesBest EV | 0.1% | 1.0% | +0.9% |
| YesBest EV | 0.1% | 1.0% | +0.9% |
Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?"?
As of the latest update, No leads the field as the frontrunner with a 100% win probability, followed by No at 100% and No at 99.8%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $6.5M, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.
How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?
The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.
Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?
Our latest run flags Yes as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 25.5% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 35.1% — an Expected Value gap of +9.6%, making it the premium value play in this pool.
Is the market consensus overreacting to any specific outcome?
Yes — our data suggests a notable overreaction around No. The crowd has pushed its live Trade Value up to 74.5%, yet our Fair Value assessment puts its real likelihood at just 64.9%, a negative EV Gap of -9.6% that signals the contract is overpriced.
Are there any high-value dark horse options hidden in the long-tail data?
Absolutely. Beyond the headline outcomes, our model highlights under-the-radar potential in lower-ranked options. Yes holds a positive EV Gap of +9.3%, and Yes shows +7.2%. These contracts are discounted by live order books despite stronger quantitative backing.