Victoria Legislative Council Election Winner

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Victoria Legislative Council Election Winner”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Labor is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,900% chance of winning. Liberal–National follows in second place at 4,200%, while Greens sits in third with 3,500%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Labor (4,900%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Labor is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,900¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Liberal–National (4,200%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Liberal–National maintains a 4,200% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,200¢.
• Greens (3,500%): Sitting in third place with a 3,500% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Greens, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes One Nation (3,500%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like One Nation are still attracting notable interest.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Council (Victoria's upper house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all Legislative Council seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, including members elected from joint Liberal–National groups, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.

Each Legislative Council seat will be attributed to the party under whose name the elected candidate, or the elected candidate's group, appeared on the ballot paper.

Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the total number of Legislative Council seats won across all eight electoral regions. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of formal first-preference votes received in the Legislative Council election across all eight electoral regions, counting both above-the-line votes for the party's group and below-the-line first-preference votes for its candidates, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, including the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).