US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 80.5% chance of winning. November 30 follows in second place at 56.5%, while November 22 sits in third with 47.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $403K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (80.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 81¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $61.8K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• November 30 (56.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, November 30 maintains a 56.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 56¢.
• November 22 (47.5%): Sitting in third place with a 47.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward November 22, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes November 15 (41.5%), and November 8 (17%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like November 15 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran is completed, where the first day of that period is between market creation and the specified date (Iran Standard Time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (Iran Standard Time) after the most recent qualifying military action. Military actions occurring before market creation are not qualifying military actions. Where no qualifying military action has occurred after market creation, the first day of the 14-day period will be the date of market creation (Iran Standard Time). The period runs through 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the 14th calendar day.

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:

Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;

Surface-to-air missile strikes;

Small-arms fire;

Ground incursions;

Cyber operations;

Naval gunfire and artillery fire;

Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);

Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;

Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. To allow for the reporting of any qualifying military action occurring within a 14-day period, that period will not be considered completed until 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the third calendar date following its 14th day; only qualifying military actions occurring within the 14-day period will be considered for that period. If multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a potentially-qualifying incident at that time, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome November 8 currently trades at 17%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 14.2%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -2.8%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies November 22 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 47.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 56.4% — yielding an impressive +8.9% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include November 30 (EV Gap: +6.9%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.