US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, September 30 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 10.5% chance of winning. August 31 follows in second place at 0.4%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $329K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• September 30 (10.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, September 30 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 11¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $4.9K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• August 31 (0.4%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, August 31 maintains a 0.4% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 0¢.

On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.

Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.

Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.

Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies September 30 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 10.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 21% — yielding an impressive +10.5% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include August 31 (EV Gap: +0.6%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.