US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 31.5% chance of winning. November 30 follows in second place at 19.5%, while November 2 sits in third with 5.3%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $2.7M, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (31.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 32¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $203.2K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• November 30 (19.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, November 30 maintains a 19.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 20¢.
• November 2 (5.3%): Sitting in third place with a 5.3% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward November 2, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~43.8%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes October 31 (3.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like October 31 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran.

A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement.

Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement.

Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome December 31 currently trades at 31.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 30.4%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -1.1%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies October 31 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 3.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 6.7% — yielding an impressive +3.3% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include November 2 (EV Gap: +2.2%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.