US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, November 5 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 9,400% chance of winning. November 6 follows in second place at 8,900%, while November 8 sits in third with 7,200%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $1.3K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• November 5 (9,400%): Currently commanding the highest probability, November 5 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9,400¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $958 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• November 6 (8,900%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, November 6 maintains a 8,900% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 8,900¢.
• November 8 (7,200%): Sitting in third place with a 7,200% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward November 8, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes November 15 (5,400%), November 30 (4,400%), and December 31 (4,000%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like November 15 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:

Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;

Surface-to-air missile strikes;

Small-arms fire;

Ground incursions;

Cyber operations;

Naval gunfire and artillery fire;

Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);

Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;

Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Unless a qualifying military action has already been established by a consensus of information available from the resolution sources, this market will remain open until 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the third calendar date following the specified date. If multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a potentially-qualifying incident at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the third calendar date following the specified date, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.