US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “US imports Russian diesel by October 31?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Yes is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,000% chance of winning. No follows in second place at 5,000%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Yes (5,000%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Yes is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,000¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• No (5,000%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, No maintains a 5,000% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 5,000¢.

On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin.

Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify.

To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel).

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.