US charges Hormuz fees by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “US charges Hormuz fees by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, No is dominating the market with an overwhelming 9,660% chance of winning. Yes follows in second place at 340%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $972.8K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• No (9,660%): Currently commanding the highest probability, No is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9,660¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Yes (340%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Yes maintains a 340% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 340¢.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.

The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.

The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.