US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 57.9% chance of winning. October 31 follows in second place at 34.5%, while September 30 sits in third with 14.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $26.7M, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (57.9%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 58¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $1.4M in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• October 31 (34.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, October 31 maintains a 34.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 35¢.
• September 30 (14.5%): Sitting in third place with a 14.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward September 30, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes September 21 (8.5%), September 14 (3.5%), and September 7 (0%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like September 21 are still attracting notable interest.

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.

A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.

A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.

A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.

The following do not qualify:

Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;

Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;

Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;

Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and

Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.

Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.

Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies October 31 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 34.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 45.3% — yielding an impressive +10.8% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include September 30 (EV Gap: +7.9%) and September 14 (EV Gap: +5.8%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.