Liechtenstein vs. Azerbaijan - More Markets

$360.2K Vol
Nov 14, 2026
Active
Probability Trend
Liechtenstein 84.5%
Azerbaijan 15.5%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Liechtenstein vs. Azerbaijan - More Markets”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Both Teams to Score is dominating the market with an overwhelming 27.5% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $360.2K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • Both Teams to Score (27.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Both Teams to Score is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 28¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $10.7K in volume.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
1Both Teams to Score27.5%$10.7K28¢73¢

Result Rules

In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Liechtenstein and Azerbaijan, originally scheduled for Friday, November 13, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event):

AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

  • The Most Overvalued Outcome Both Teams to Score currently trades at 27.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 27.1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -0.4%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Both Teams to Score27.5%27.1%-0.4%

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Nov 13, 2026

  • 10:10 AM
    0X0x5aD3ba33245cb7849d7A89a60ac863a811eF6D57-1764581863545
    $1.00

    Bought 1.42857 Over for Liechtenstein vs. Azerbaijan: O/U 1.5 at 0.7

  • 10:03 AM
    NEneuralnetwork
    $7.90

    Bought 8.681311 Under for Liechtenstein vs. Azerbaijan: O/U 4.5 at 0.91

  • 10:00 AM
    G7g7ptv9vwe89h
    $2.70

    Bought 5 Azerbaijan for Spread: Azerbaijan (-1.5) at 0.54

  • 09:32 AM
    AUAurasi
    $17.00

    Bought 73.913044 Over for Liechtenstein vs. Azerbaijan: O/U 3.5 at 0.23

  • 09:19 AM
    GOGoalLineGhost
    $10.50

    Bought 37.51 Azerbaijan for Spread: Azerbaijan (-2.5) at 0.28

  • 09:19 AM
    GOGoalLineGhost
    $14.90

    Bought 28.12 Azerbaijan for Spread: Azerbaijan (-1.5) at 0.53

  • 09:19 AM
    GOGoalLineGhost
    $120.37

    Bought 231.48 Azerbaijan for Spread: Azerbaijan (-1.5) at 0.52

  • 09:05 AM
    MAMadridTime
    $14.26

    Bought 46 Under for Liechtenstein vs. Azerbaijan: O/U 1.5 at 0.31

  • 09:05 AM
    NEneutralwave23
    $4.78

    Bought 9.192308 Azerbaijan for Spread: Azerbaijan (-1.5) at 0.52

  • 09:05 AM
    ARaresppgc
    $1.14

    Bought 2.192308 Azerbaijan for Spread: Azerbaijan (-1.5) at 0.52

  • 09:05 AM
    0X0xBea6ae3ae609a26C1a1151FD65126CeCeF42f915-1779721345821
    $1.14

    Bought 2.192308 Azerbaijan for Spread: Azerbaijan (-1.5) at 0.52

  • 09:05 AM
    SIsionnach
    $67.49

    Bought 129.788462 Azerbaijan for Spread: Azerbaijan (-1.5) at 0.52

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

DE1
DelidelaDele
Event PnL
+$566.76
Volume
$246,249.67
Positions
Liechtenstein
2C2
0x2c33…5465
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$100,000.00
Positions
Azerbaijan
KC3
Kch-Temp
Event PnL
-$171.95
Volume
$34,397.64
Positions
Azerbaijan
SA4
sabghm
Event PnL
-$149.96
Volume
$30,000.00
Positions
Azerbaijan
SI5
Siddhartha1
Event PnL
-$140.22
Volume
$28,049.89
Positions
Azerbaijan
FL6
Flaznorp
Event PnL
-$100.43
Volume
$19,814.69
Positions
AzerbaijanUnderLiechtenstein+18
GO7
GoalLineGhost
Event PnL
-$325.61
Volume
$17,589.99
Positions
AzerbaijanUnderUnder+6
ZH8
zhuz632
Event PnL
-$72.49
Volume
$14,498.00
Positions
Azerbaijan

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "Liechtenstein vs. Azerbaijan - More Markets"?

As of the latest update, Both Teams to Score leads the field as the frontrunner with a 27.5% win probability. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $360.2K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?

The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.

Is the market consensus overreacting to any specific outcome?

Yes — our data suggests a notable overreaction around Both Teams to Score. The crowd has pushed its live Trade Value up to 27.5%, yet our Fair Value assessment puts its real likelihood at just 27.1%, a negative EV Gap of -0.4% that signals the contract is overpriced.

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