Finland vs. San Marino - More Markets

$254.1K Vol
Nov 15, 2026
Active
Probability Trend
Finland 56.5%
San Marino 43.5%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Finland vs. San Marino - More Markets”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Both Teams to Score is dominating the market with an overwhelming 22.5% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $254.1K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • Both Teams to Score (22.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Both Teams to Score is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 23¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $17.8K in volume.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
1Both Teams to Score22.5%$17.8K23¢78¢

Result Rules

In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Finland and San Marino, originally scheduled for Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event):

AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

  • The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Both Teams to Score as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 22.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 23.5% — yielding an impressive +1% EV Gap.
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Both Teams to ScoreBest EV22.5%23.5%+1.0%

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Nov 15, 2026

  • 10:12 AM
    212185ccpoli
    $10.02

    Bought 334 Over for Finland vs. San Marino: O/U 8.5 at 0.03

  • 10:12 AM
    212185ccpoli
    $15.00

    Bought 214.285715 Over for Finland vs. San Marino: O/U 7.5 at 0.07

  • 10:12 AM
    212185ccpoli
    $25.00

    Bought 178.571429 Over for Finland vs. San Marino: O/U 6.5 at 0.14

  • 10:12 AM
    RAran10
    $1.00

    Bought 14.285715 Over for Finland vs. San Marino: O/U 7.5 at 0.07

  • 10:12 AM
    RAran10
    $1.00

    Bought 7.142858 Over for Finland vs. San Marino: O/U 6.5 at 0.14

  • 10:11 AM
    212185ccpoli
    $100.00

    Bought 232.55814 Over for Finland vs. San Marino: O/U 4.5 at 0.43

  • 10:11 AM
    JOjohnevergreen
    $58.13

    Sold 62.5 Over for Finland vs. San Marino: O/U 1.5 at 0.93

  • 10:05 AM
    JOjohnevergreen
    $256.00

    Sold 320 Over for Finland vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5 at 0.8

  • 10:04 AM
    FLFlaznorp
    $13.10

    Bought 109.166667 Over for Finland vs. San Marino: San Marino 1st Half O/U 0.5 at 0.12

  • 10:04 AM
    FEferdinand2
    $0.01

    Bought 0.06 Over for Finland vs. San Marino: San Marino 1st Half O/U 0.5 at 0.12

  • 10:04 AM
    P0p0520
    $1.25

    Bought 10.416667 Over for Finland vs. San Marino: San Marino 1st Half O/U 0.5 at 0.12

  • 10:04 AM
    FLFlaznorp
    $1.79

    Bought 14.916667 Over for Finland vs. San Marino: San Marino 1st Half O/U 0.5 at 0.12

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

FL1
Flaznorp
Event PnL
-$158.84
Volume
$12,418.00
Positions
YesOverUnder+12
GO2
GoalLineGhost
Event PnL
+$13.38
Volume
$7,044.28
Positions
UnderUnderUnder+8
ZZ3
Zzzz87
Event PnL
+$118.59
Volume
$5,219.08
Positions
NoOver
DI4
digitalmonster2
Event PnL
+$37.19
Volume
$3,586.14
Positions
No
SE5
sentrio
Event PnL
-$67.75
Volume
$3,065.52
Positions
YesUnderSan Marino+6
LI6
liyangwin09
Event PnL
+$8.82
Volume
$1,730.50
Positions
No
PE7
Peace12345
Event PnL
-$20.95
Volume
$1,397.00
Positions
Yes
WA8
WaterlooUV
Event PnL
+$596.71
Volume
$1,243.00
Positions
UnderUnder

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "Finland vs. San Marino - More Markets"?

As of the latest update, Both Teams to Score leads the field as the frontrunner with a 22.5% win probability. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $254.1K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?

The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.

Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?

Our latest run flags Both Teams to Score as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 22.5% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 23.5% — an Expected Value gap of +1%, making it the premium value play in this pool.

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