Finland vs. San Marino - Exact Score

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Finland vs. San Marino - Exact Score”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Finland 3 - 1 San Marino is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4% chance of winning. Finland 2 - 1 San Marino follows in second place at 3%, while Finland 5 - 1 San Marino sits in third with 1.8%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $109.4K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Finland 3 - 1 San Marino (4%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Finland 3 - 1 San Marino is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $13.2K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Finland 2 - 1 San Marino (3%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Finland 2 - 1 San Marino maintains a 3% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 3¢.
• Finland 5 - 1 San Marino (1.8%): Sitting in third place with a 1.8% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Finland 5 - 1 San Marino, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~91.2%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Finland 0 - 0 San Marino (1.5%), Finland 0 - 1 San Marino (0.5%), and Finland 2 - 2 San Marino (0.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Finland 1 - 2 San Marino are still attracting notable interest.

In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Finland and San Marino, originally scheduled for Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve based on the final score of the Finland vs. San Marino match, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the match is canceled, does not start by Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve to "0-0". The following abandonment rules apply only when this market's outcome was not already definitively determined under its rules before abandonment. If the match is abandoned, this market will resolve according to the official ruling of the governing body or event organizers on the abandoned match. If a result is awarded by Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that determines this market's outcome, this market will resolve based on the awarded result, regardless of the score as played. If no such result is awarded and the result as played at the time of abandonment is declared to stand by Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the match as played. If the match is replayed or resumed from the point of abandonment and has an official result by Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the completed result. In any other case, this market will resolve to "0-0". Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor names, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences in a team's or player's name will not affect resolution, provided the intended team or player can be clearly and uniquely identified as a participant in the listed fixture or competition. If a listed name has no reasonable connection to any participant, or could reasonably refer to more than one participant such that the intended team or player cannot be determined, this market will resolve as it would if the listed fixture had been canceled entirely; a listed participant who cannot be identified does not count as inactive or absent. The primary resolution source for this market will be official match information from UEFA Nations League (https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/). If the governing body or event organizers have not published final statistics within 2 hours of the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve to "0-0".

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Finland 3 - 1 San Marino currently trades at 4%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 0.9%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -3.1%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Finland 0 - 1 San Marino as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 0.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 1% — yielding an impressive +0.5% EV Gap.