Belgium vs. Italy - More Markets

$136.9K Vol
Nov 16, 2026
Active
Probability Trend
Over 58.5%
Under 41.5%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Belgium vs. Italy - More Markets”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Both Teams to Score is dominating the market with an overwhelming 60% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $136.9K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • Both Teams to Score (60%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Both Teams to Score is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 60¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $27.3K in volume.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
1Both Teams to Score60.0%$27.3K60¢40¢

Result Rules

In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Belgium and Italy, originally scheduled for Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event):

AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

  • The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Both Teams to Score as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 60% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 62% — yielding an impressive +2% EV Gap.
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Both Teams to ScoreBest EV60.0%62.0%+2.0%

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Nov 15, 2026

  • 10:08 AM
    ——
    $8.00

    Bought 13.114753 Yes for Belgium vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score at 0.61

  • 10:05 AM
    SESecondChanceAtLife
    $15.00

    Bought 24.590164 Yes for Belgium vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score at 0.61

  • 10:02 AM
    SNSnowRazer
    $6.10

    Bought 10 Yes for Belgium vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score at 0.61

  • 10:01 AM
    0X0x2676d078430f3D4D30a96673D72b7C16A05e8D65-1780154548401
    $30.00

    Bought 51.724138 Over for Belgium vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 at 0.58

  • 10:00 AM
    SNSnowRazer
    $3.85

    Bought 5 Italy for Spread: Belgium (-1.5) at 0.77

  • 09:51 AM
    AOAO08
    $157.00

    Bought 270.689654 Over for Belgium vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 at 0.58

  • 09:47 AM
    RErev28
    $100.00

    Bought 105.26314 Over for Belgium vs. Italy: O/U 0.5 at 0.95

  • 09:44 AM
    FYfyoul
    $26.40

    Bought 30 Belgium for Spread: Italy (-1.5) at 0.88

  • 09:43 AM
    FYfyoul
    $332.50

    Bought 350 Over for Belgium vs. Italy: O/U 0.5 at 0.95

  • 09:43 AM
    LELeoTheKing
    $30.00

    Bought 49.180328 Yes for Belgium vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score at 0.61

  • 09:38 AM
    PMPM4UAI
    $3.93

    Bought 6.89 Over for Belgium vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 at 0.57

  • 09:38 AM
    AXax2026
    $4.62

    Bought 8.105262 Over for Belgium vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 at 0.57

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

FL1
Flaznorp
Event PnL
-$159.18
Volume
$18,128.79
Positions
NoUnderOver+7
GO2
GoalLineGhost
Event PnL
+$112.44
Volume
$14,138.97
Positions
ItalyUnderOver+8
KY3
Kyn008
Event PnL
+$40.90
Volume
$10,364.30
Positions
UnderUnder
TR4
TrippleEX
Event PnL
+$18.62
Volume
$7,880.31
Positions
Yes
KE5
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Event PnL
-$31.33
Volume
$7,116.39
Positions
OverUnder
9E6
0x9e3e…9396
Event PnL
+$5.24
Volume
$6,829.20
Positions
YesOverOver+3
C67
0xc6a2…d7db
Event PnL
-$28.89
Volume
$5,777.97
Positions
OverOver
AO8
AO08
Event PnL
-$51.51
Volume
$5,285.26
Positions
UnderBelgiumUnder+1

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "Belgium vs. Italy - More Markets"?

As of the latest update, Both Teams to Score leads the field as the frontrunner with a 60% win probability. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $136.9K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?

The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.

Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?

Our latest run flags Both Teams to Score as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 60% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 62% — an Expected Value gap of +2%, making it the premium value play in this pool.

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