UFC 331: Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf (Heavyweight, Prelims)

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “UFC 331: Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf (Heavyweight, Prelims)”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Ends before Round 3? is dominating the market with an overwhelming 88% chance of winning. Fight won by KO/TKO? follows in second place at 78.5%, while Steveson to win by KO/TKO? sits in third with 72%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $402K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Ends before Round 3? (88%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Ends before Round 3? is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 88¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Fight won by KO/TKO? (78.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Fight won by KO/TKO? maintains a 78.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 79¢.
• Steveson to win by KO/TKO? (72%): Sitting in third place with a 72% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Steveson to win by KO/TKO?, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Steveson in Round 1 (70.5%), Steveson in Round 2 (54%), and Fight won by submission? (16.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Fight to Go the Distance? are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Gable Steveson" if Gable Steveson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Sean Sharaf at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2, scheduled for September 19, 2026.

It will resolve to "Sean Sharaf" if Sean Sharaf is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 3, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Fight won by submission? currently trades at 16.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -15.5%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Fight won by KO/TKO? as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 78.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 81.9% — yielding an impressive +3.4% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Steveson in Round 1 (EV Gap: +2.2%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.