UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Fight won by KO/TKO? is dominating the market with an overwhelming 41% chance of winning. Fight won by submission? follows in second place at 34.5%, while Fight won by decision? sits in third with 26%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $174.1K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Fight won by KO/TKO? (41%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Fight won by KO/TKO? is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 41¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $2.2K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Fight won by submission? (34.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Fight won by submission? maintains a 34.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 35¢.
• Fight won by decision? (26%): Sitting in third place with a 26% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Fight won by decision?, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Tsarukyan to win by KO/TKO? (25.5%), Fight to Go the Distance? (22.5%), and Ruffy to win by KO/TKO? (19.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Tsarukyan in Round 2 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Arman Tsarukyan" if Arman Tsarukyan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mauricio Ruffy at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2, scheduled for September 19, 2026.

It will resolve to "Mauricio Ruffy" if Mauricio Ruffy is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 3, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Fight won by submission? currently trades at 34.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 26.5%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -8%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Tsarukyan in Round 2 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 16.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 55.3% — yielding an impressive +38.8% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Fight won by decision? (EV Gap: +17.1%) and Ruffy to win by KO/TKO? (EV Gap: +1.7%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.