Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 90% chance of winning. November 30 follows in second place at 62%, while November 15 sits in third with 5.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $81.7K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (90%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 90¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $32.2K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• November 30 (62%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, November 30 maintains a 62% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 62¢.
• November 15 (5.5%): Sitting in third place with a 5.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward November 15, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components.

Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market’s timeframe will not count.

The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies November 30 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 62% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 68.6% — yielding an impressive +6.6% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include November 15 (EV Gap: +3.4%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.