TIME Person of the Year 2026

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “TIME Person of the Year 2026”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Zohran Mamdani is dominating the market with an overwhelming 27.5% chance of winning. Mark Carney follows in second place at 16.5%, while Ali Khamenei sits in third with 10.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $76.7K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Zohran Mamdani (27.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Zohran Mamdani is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 28¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $24.9K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Mark Carney (16.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Mark Carney maintains a 16.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 17¢.
• Ali Khamenei (10.5%): Sitting in third place with a 10.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Ali Khamenei, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~45.5%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Donald Trump (10.5%), Pope Leo XIV (9%), and Christina Koch (7%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Victor Glover are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year.

Additionally, the following rules apply:

If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year.

If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person.

If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous.

If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017.

If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Mark Carney currently trades at 16.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 8.2%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -8.3%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Shehbaz Sharif as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 4.3% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 43.8% — yielding an impressive +39.6% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include ChatGPT (EV Gap: +28%) and Marco Rubio (EV Gap: +20.2%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.