Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31, 2028 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 33.5% chance of winning. December 31, 2027 follows in second place at 20%, while June 30, 2027 sits in third with 17.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $832.7K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31, 2028 (33.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31, 2028 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 34¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $72.9K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• December 31, 2027 (20%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, December 31, 2027 maintains a 20% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 20¢.
• June 30, 2027 (17.5%): Sitting in third place with a 17.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward June 30, 2027, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~29%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes December 31, 2026 (2%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like December 31, 2026 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Texas enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies.

Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in the certified results, regardless of when the measure is certified or takes effect. Passage by one or both chambers, or a Governor's announced intent to sign, is not enactment.

Executive orders, agency orders, and other measures which are not statutory or constitutional do not qualify as enactment regardless of legal force. A provision removed by line-item veto is not enacted unless the veto is overridden as to that item. The operative text of the measure at enactment controls; provisions amended out before enactment do not qualify.

The moratorium provision must be mandatory on its face. A statute that merely authorizes a state agency or the Governor to impose a moratorium at their discretion does not qualify. A statute that directs suspension of approvals or interconnection upon a specified condition qualifies only if the condition is objectively determinable and is not deferred to be determined by the implementing agency's findings, certifications, or completion of its own proceedings.

This market resolves based on the date of enactment, not the effective date. Resolution will not be affected by failure to implement a law, judicial invalidation, repeal, or expiry that follows a relevant enactment, or an effective date that comes after the date of enactment.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the state government of Texas; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies December 31, 2026 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 2% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 7.7% — yielding an impressive +5.7% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include December 31, 2027 (EV Gap: +3.8%) and June 30, 2027 (EV Gap: +1.3%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.