Malmo FF vs. AIK
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Malmo FF vs. AIK”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, Malmo FF is dominating the market with an overwhelming 56.5% chance of winning. Draw (Malmo FF vs. AIK) follows in second place at 22.5%, while AIK sits in third with 21.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $37.7K, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- Malmo FF (56.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Malmo FF is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 56¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $18.3K in volume.
🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers
- Draw (Malmo FF vs. AIK) (22.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Draw (Malmo FF vs. AIK) maintains a 22.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 23¢.
- AIK (21.5%): Sitting in third place with a 21.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward AIK, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malmo FF | 56.5% | $18.3K | 56¢ | 44¢ |
| 2 | Draw (Malmo FF vs. AIK) | 22.5% | $7.5K | 23¢ | 78¢ |
| 3 | AIK | 21.5% | $11.9K | 22¢ | 79¢ |
Result Rules
This event is for the upcoming Allsvenskan game, scheduled for Monday, September 7, 2026 between Malmo FF and AIK.
AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps
While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.
Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.
Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities
Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:
- The Most Overvalued Outcome AIK currently trades at 21.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 19.5%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -2%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF | 56.5% | 56.4% | -0.1% |
| Draw (Malmo FF vs. AIK) | 22.5% | 22.4% | -0.2% |
| AIK | 21.5% | 19.4% | -2.0% |
Trade Activities
Here is the trade activities for this event.
Sep 7, 2026
- 08:33 AM——$1.10
Bought 1.929823 Yes for Will Malmo FF win on 2026-09-07? at 0.57
- 08:29 AM——$1.93
Bought 3.385962 Yes for Will Malmo FF win on 2026-09-07? at 0.57
- 08:20 AMGRgrandeYdesagradable$3.15
Bought 5.526313 Yes for Will Malmo FF win on 2026-09-07? at 0.57
- 08:20 AMMOmonter.86$20.00
Bought 35.087718 Yes for Will Malmo FF win on 2026-09-07? at 0.57
- 07:56 AMDEdegenatoooor$10.00
Bought 43.478259 Yes for Will Malmo FF vs. AIK end in a draw? at 0.23
- 07:45 AM0X0x4B705AB3aAFc0FEBaD67694f271D4c6Cba5E8dCD-1777465522584$3.00
Bought 14.285713 Yes for Will AIK win on 2026-09-07? at 0.21
- 07:39 AMKIkitakitakitakita$10.00
Bought 17.543858 Yes for Will Malmo FF win on 2026-09-07? at 0.57
- 07:27 AMFRFrapi$10.78
Bought 13.475 No for Will AIK win on 2026-09-07? at 0.8
- 07:15 AMCLclitoris.the.Third$10.00
Bought 43.478259 Yes for Will Malmo FF vs. AIK end in a draw? at 0.23
- 07:00 AMDEdentleightadman$1.00
Bought 2.32558 No for Will Malmo FF win on 2026-09-07? at 0.43
- 06:10 AMSUsuntori$1.90
Bought 3.275861 Yes for Will Malmo FF win on 2026-09-07? at 0.58
- 05:52 AM0X0x6137F9f49C72422bDd7A0eb5c01206dc1c337203-1771629760944$5.00
Bought 8.620688 Yes for Will Malmo FF win on 2026-09-07? at 0.58
Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "Malmo FF vs. AIK"?
As of the latest update, Malmo FF leads the field as the frontrunner with a 56.5% win probability, followed by Draw (Malmo FF vs. AIK) at 22.5% and AIK at 21.5%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $37.7K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.
How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?
The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.
Is the market consensus overreacting to any specific outcome?
Yes — our data suggests a notable overreaction around AIK. The crowd has pushed its live Trade Value up to 21.5%, yet our Fair Value assessment puts its real likelihood at just 19.5%, a negative EV Gap of -2% that signals the contract is overpriced.