S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on September 9?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on September 9?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, $745 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 9,050% chance of winning. $750 follows in second place at 8,950%, while $755 sits in third with 8,750%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• $745 (9,050%): Currently commanding the highest probability, $745 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9,050¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• $750 (8,950%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, $750 maintains a 8,950% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 8,950¢.
• $755 (8,750%): Sitting in third place with a 8,750% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward $755, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes $760 (7,600%), $765 (6,150%), and $770 (3,850%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like $775 are still attracting notable interest.

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on September 9?