Spain General Election: Valladolid Winner

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Spain General Election: Valladolid Winner”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, PP is dominating the market with an overwhelming 91% chance of winning. Vox follows in second place at 5.7%, while PSOE sits in third with 4.9%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $4.8K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• PP (91%): Currently commanding the highest probability, PP is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 91¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $4.0K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Vox (5.7%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Vox maintains a 5.7% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 6¢.
• PSOE (4.9%): Sitting in third place with a 4.9% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward PSOE, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Broad Front (FA) (4.8%), and Podemos (2.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Broad Front (FA) are still attracting notable interest.

Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain in the constituency of Valladolid as a result of this election.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) in the constituency of Valladolid, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists in the constituency of Valladolid, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows:

PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia.

PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre.

Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands.

ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia.

Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own.

CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands.

Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies.

Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome PSOE currently trades at 4.9%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 0.9%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -4%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Podemos as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 2.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 17.4% — yielding an impressive +15% EV Gap.