Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 22% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $353.6K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (22%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 22¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $445 in volume.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rubén Rocha Moya is extradited to the United States between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Extradited to the United States” means Rocha Moya is physically transferred to U.S. government custody pursuant to an extradition process or equivalent custody transfer process. If Rocha Moya otherwise enters U.S. territory and is subsequently arrested or taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date, this will also qualify.

An announcement that extradition has been requested, approved, ordered, or agreed to will not qualify unless Rocha Moya is physically transferred to, arrested by, or otherwise taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Rubén Rocha Moya, the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa, the United States government, and relevant courts; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome December 31 currently trades at 22%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -21%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.