Serbian presidential election called by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Serbian presidential election called by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, October 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,350% chance of winning. October 15 follows in second place at 3,900%, while September 30 sits in third with 2,250%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $20, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• October 31 (4,350%): Currently commanding the highest probability, October 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,350¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• October 15 (3,900%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, October 15 maintains a 3,900% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 3,900¢.
• September 30 (2,250%): Sitting in third place with a 2,250% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward September 30, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

On September 27, 2026, Aleksandar Vučić resigned as President of Serbia.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Serbian presidential election is called by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An election is called when it has been declared under the relevant Serbian electoral, legal, or constitutional procedures, to take place on a specific date, and the date of the election has been publicly announced.

A statement of intention to call the election will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Serbia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.