Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, Celtic FC is dominating the market with an overwhelming 43.5% chance of winning. Rangers FC follows in second place at 31.5%, while Draw (Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC) sits in third with 25.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $168.2K, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- Celtic FC (43.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Celtic FC is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 44¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.
🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers
- Rangers FC (31.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Rangers FC maintains a 31.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 32¢.
- Draw (Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC) (25.5%): Sitting in third place with a 25.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Draw (Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC), treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic FC | 43.5% | — | 44¢ | 57¢ |
| 2 | Rangers FC | 31.5% | — | 32¢ | 69¢ |
| 3 | Draw (Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC) | 25.5% | — | 26¢ | 75¢ |
Result Rules
This event is for the upcoming Scottish Premiership game, scheduled for Sunday, September 20, 2026 between Celtic FC and Rangers FC.
AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps
While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.
Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.
Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities
Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:
- The Most Overvalued Outcome Draw (Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC) currently trades at 25.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 23.3%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -2.2%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic FC | 43.5% | 43.4% | -0.1% |
| Rangers FC | 31.5% | 30.9% | -0.6% |
| Draw (Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC) | 25.5% | 23.3% | -2.2% |
Trade Activities
Here is the trade activities for this event.
Sep 20, 2026
- 09:05 AMFLFlaznorp$71.63
Bought 125.666667 No for Will Celtic FC win on 2026-09-20? at 0.57
- 09:05 AM0X0xf0C1936ddbEBF206ddAE13509B76DB47086A853B-1789331868543$3.99
Bought 7 No for Will Celtic FC win on 2026-09-20? at 0.57
- 09:03 AM0X0xf0C1936ddbEBF206ddAE13509B76DB47086A853B-1789331868543$2.28
Bought 4 No for Will Celtic FC win on 2026-09-20? at 0.57
- 09:03 AMFLFlaznorp$31.48
Bought 55.228069 No for Will Celtic FC win on 2026-09-20? at 0.57
- 09:02 AMUPUpTheBlues$62.14
Bought 239 Yes for Will Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC end in a draw? at 0.26
- 09:00 AMUPUpTheBlues$54.72
Bought 96 No for Will Celtic FC win on 2026-09-20? at 0.57
- 08:47 AMMAmarkrypto$37.50
Bought 50 No for Will Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC end in a draw? at 0.75
- 08:31 AMUPUpTheBlues$301.53
Bought 529 No for Will Celtic FC win on 2026-09-20? at 0.57
- 08:25 AMNIninemmmm$2.85
Bought 5 No for Will Celtic FC win on 2026-09-20? at 0.57
- 08:24 AMSWSwiss-c$2.85
Bought 5 No for Will Celtic FC win on 2026-09-20? at 0.57
- 08:24 AM0X0xf0C1936ddbEBF206ddAE13509B76DB47086A853B-1789331868543$1.14
Bought 2 No for Will Celtic FC win on 2026-09-20? at 0.57
- 08:24 AMFLFlaznorp$10.61
Bought 18.614034 No for Will Celtic FC win on 2026-09-20? at 0.57
Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC"?
As of the latest update, Celtic FC leads the field as the frontrunner with a 43.5% win probability, followed by Rangers FC at 31.5% and Draw (Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC) at 25.5%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $168.2K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.
How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?
The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.
Is the market consensus overreacting to any specific outcome?
Yes — our data suggests a notable overreaction around Draw (Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC). The crowd has pushed its live Trade Value up to 25.5%, yet our Fair Value assessment puts its real likelihood at just 23.3%, a negative EV Gap of -2.2% that signals the contract is overpriced.