Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, No is dominating the market with an overwhelming 9,935% chance of winning. Yes follows in second place at 65%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $551K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• No (9,935%): Currently commanding the highest probability, No is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9,935¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Yes (65%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Yes maintains a 65% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 65¢.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.

The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.

If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.