Rubio flips Vance for GOP nomination by October 31?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Rubio flips Vance for GOP nomination by October 31?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Yes is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,000% chance of winning. No follows in second place at 5,000%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Yes (5,000%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Yes is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,000¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• No (5,000%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, No maintains a 5,000% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 5,000¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marco Rubio's hourly odds value is higher than JD Vance's hourly odds value in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Marco Rubio being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values.

Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Marco Rubio or JD Vance in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing before November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point.

If no hourly odds values have been published for both Marco Rubio and JD Vance between market creation and November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Marco Rubio is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No".

If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Marco Rubio and JD Vance in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/gop-nomination-2028.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.