Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate is dominating the market with an overwhelming 27.5% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $92.7K, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate (27.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 28¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $48.2K in volume.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate | 27.5% | $48.2K | 28¢ | 73¢ |
Result Rules
See market rules.
AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps
While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.
Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.
Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities
Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:
- The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 27.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 32.2% — yielding an impressive +4.7% EV Gap.
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Hormuz Agreement; R SenateBest EV | 27.5% | 32.2% | +4.7% |
Trade Activities
Here is the trade activities for this event.
Oct 31, 2026
- 09:26 PMPRprodset$17.25
Sold 23 No for Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.75
- 09:19 PMPRprodset$28.08
Sold 36 No for Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.78
- 09:19 PMPRprodset$17.16
Sold 22 No for Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.78
- 09:03 PMPRprodset$49.50
Sold 66 No for Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.75
- 09:03 PMPRprodset$14.25
Sold 19 No for Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.75
- 08:43 PMARarbmesh$11.10
Sold 15 No for Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.74
- 06:10 PMXTxtxpleasecallme$3.60
Bought 5 No for Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.72
- 05:23 PM0X0x5Ed7D366Cd10657E4Be7Bf40F909C63f0954e255-1762177002964$0.95
Sold 1.38 No for Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.69
- 02:48 PMARarbmesh$10.80
Bought 15 No for Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.72
- 04:32 AMPRprodset$10.95
Bought 15 No for Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.73
- 03:34 AMPRprodset$10.65
Sold 15 No for Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.71
- 03:34 AMPRprodset$56.80
Sold 80 No for Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.71
Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?"?
As of the latest update, No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate leads the field as the frontrunner with a 27.5% win probability. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $92.7K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.
How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?
The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.
Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?
Our latest run flags No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 27.5% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 32.2% — an Expected Value gap of +4.7%, making it the premium value play in this pool.