Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 31% chance of winning. October 31 follows in second place at 17.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $80.4K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (31%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 31¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $10.8K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• October 31 (17.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, October 31 maintains a 17.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 17¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen.

“No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island.

Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own.

An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.

If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.

If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome October 31 currently trades at 17.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 9.9%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -7.6%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.