Paris curfew effectively lifted by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Paris curfew effectively lifted by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, November 30 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 98.2% chance of winning. November 7 follows in second place at 97.9%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $92.8K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• November 30 (98.2%): Currently commanding the highest probability, November 30 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 98¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $3.4K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• November 7 (97.9%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, November 7 maintains a 97.9% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 98¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any full calendar day between the day of market creation and the specified date, inclusive (Paris time), passes without any curfew in effect in any part of the City of Paris, France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A calendar day passes without any curfew in effect if, at no point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM Paris time on that day, a curfew is in effect in any part of the City of Paris.

The City of Paris refers to the municipality (commune) of Paris, within its official municipal boundaries.

A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in the City of Paris, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A curfew of any scope will count, whether citywide or limited to specific arrondissements, districts, or neighborhoods of the City of Paris, and must be officially declared by the City of Paris, the Paris Police Prefecture (Préfecture de police), or a French national authority. A broader curfew (e.g. department-wide or nationwide) will count so long as it applies to at least part of the City of Paris.

Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not be considered curfews for the purposes of this market. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not be considered curfews unless they also impose a curfew as defined above.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome November 7 currently trades at 97.9%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 91.5%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -6.4%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.